INSTITUTE FOR POLICY RESEARCH

As Latest Relief Package Passes, 1 in 5 Americans Confronts Severe Economic Hardships

December 2020

Matthew A. Baum, John Della Volpe, Roy H. Perlis, Mauricio Santillana, Harvard University; Katherine Ognyanova, Rutgers University); David Lazer, Northeastern University; James Druckman (IPR/Political Science), Northwestern University

A new survey reveals the dismal scope of many Americans’ economic struggles as Congress approves an eleventh-hour $900 billion pandemic relief package before remaining benefits expire at the end of December. Between November 3 and 30, the researchers asked roughly 20,000 individuals across the United States and Washington, D.C. about five key economic hardships: unemployment, pay cuts, evictions, making rent or a house payment, and stopping or cutting work to take care of children.

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As Coronavirus Cases Jump, Illinoisans Slip in Following Public Health Guidelines

November 2020

Matthew A. Baum, John Della Volpe, Roy H. Perlis, Mauricio Santillana, Harvard University; Katherine Ognyanova, Rutgers University); David Lazer, Northeastern University; James Druckman (IPR/Political Science), Northwestern University

As COVID-19 cases in Illinois surge past spring’s high point, a new survey examining people’s behaviors in the state shows that colder weather driving people indoors and COVID fatigue are likely behind the virus’ deadly second wave. The number of COVID-19 cases in Illinois has increased sharply over the last two months from about 2,000 cases per day in late September to a seven-day rolling average of roughly 12,000 daily cases since mid-November.

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More Wearing Masks But Fewer Staying Six Feet Apart

November 2020

Matthew A. Baum, John Della Volpe, Roy H. Perlis, Mauricio Santillana, Harvard University; Katherine Ognyanova, Rutgers University); David Lazer, Northeastern University; James Druckman (IPR/Political Science), Northwestern University

As the United States waits to see how high already grim rates of COVID-19 will go after Thanksgiving, a new survey shows that the states with the lowest levels of social distancing behaviors and mask wearing since the pandemic started are enduring the most severe outbreaks now. Researchers tracked how closely more than 139,000 people followed public health recommendations over 10 waves of surveys from April to November 2020 in every state plus the District of Columbia.

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Most Americans Support Restrictive Measures to Curb COVID-19

November 2020

Matthew A. Baum, John Della Volpe, Roy H. Perlis, Mauricio Santillana, Harvard University; Katherine Ognyanova, Rutgers University); David Lazer, Northeastern University; James Druckman (IPR/Political Science), Northwestern University

Despite differing opinions about whether shutdowns have been effective, new survey results show 6 in 10 Americans support more restrictive measures to prevent the spread of COVID-19. Following the election, researchers surveyed nearly 20,000 individuals across the nation between November 3 and 23. They asked about seven key restrictions: staying at home, gathering in large groups, closing businesses, limiting restaurants to carry-out, prohibiting in-person K–12 classes, canceling events, and restricting travel.

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Depression Among Young Adults Soars During Pandemic

November 2020

Matthew A. Baum, John Della Volpe, Roy H. Perlis, Mauricio Santillana, Harvard University; Katherine Ognyanova, Rutgers University); David Lazer, Northeastern University; James Druckman (IPR/Political Science), Northwestern University

A new survey of over 8,900 young adults, aged 18–24, across the U.S. finds that they showed higher levels of depression amid the pandemic, no matter their gender, racial or ethnic group, or geographic location. Nearly half  (47%) of those surveyed described having at least moderate symptoms of depression. More urgently, over a third (37%) reported occasional thoughts that they might be better off dead, or had thoughts of harming themselves—a tenfold increase in the rate prior to the pandemic.

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Which Issues Top Americans’ Minds as They Vote?

November 2020

Matthew A. Baum, John Della Volpe, Roy H. Perlis, Mauricio Santillana, Harvard University; Katherine Ognyanova, Rutgers University); David Lazer, Northeastern University; James Druckman (IPR/Political Science), Northwestern University

As the nation heads into Election Day, a survey of more than 20,000 American voters on the most important problems facing the U.S. finds their top answers, including the coronavirus at No. 1 overall, align more with issues that Democratic presidential candidate Joe Biden has focused on during his campaign. The researchers show that COVID-19 topped the list for voters in every state but Alaska, where 16% of respondents chose climate change instead. Other first-picks mentioned were racism (10% ranked it first), the economy (8%), healthcare (7%), and crime and violence (6%).

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Survey Finds Older Americans Tweet More Fake News About COVID-19

October 2020

Matthew A. Baum, John Della Volpe, Roy H. Perlis, Mauricio Santillana, Harvard University; Katherine Ognyanova, Rutgers University); David Lazer, Northeastern University; James Druckman (IPR/Political Science), Northwestern University

Older Americans and Republicans are more likely to share fake news websites about COVID-19 on Twitter, new research shows. But at the same time, older people are less likely to believe misinformation about the pandemic than younger ones. The researchers, who included IPR political scientist James Druckman, examined over 29.6 million tweets about COVID-19 by 1.6 million registered voters, collected between January 1 and September 30. They asked, "Who is sharing fake news about the pandemic and what are they sharing?" Over 7 million COVID-19 tweets included a website URL, of which a little more than 1% were from fake news sites.

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COVID-19 Testing Speeds Increase

October 2020

Matthew A. Baum, John Della Volpe, Roy H. Perlis, Mauricio Santillana, Harvard University; Katherine Ognyanova, Rutgers University); David Lazer, Northeastern University; James Druckman (IPR/Political Science), Northwestern University

The average turnaround time for COVID-19 nasal swab tests decreased from an average of 4 days in April to 2.7 days in September, according to the latest survey results of an ongoing national survey of attitudes about COVID-19. Despite the quicker testing speeds, the results are still too slow in most cases to support successful contact tracing.

The researchers, who surveyed over 52,300 respondents in July, August, and September, looked at over 8,800 who received a COVID-19 nasal swab test. They found only 56% of those who tested positive for the coronavirus reported being contacted by someone to trace people they had been physically near in the last week. Of those who were notified about possible exposure, 37% said they were contacted by their state government, 28% by their local government, 25% by the hospital, and 8% by a non-profit organization.

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Survey Shows Why 2020’s ‘Election Day’ Might Turn into ‘Election Week’

October 2020

Matthew A. Baum, John Della Volpe, Roy H. Perlis, Mauricio Santillana, Harvard University; Katherine Ognyanova, Rutgers University); David Lazer, Northeastern University; James Druckman (IPR/Political Science), Northwestern University

A new survey indicates why Americans might see President Trump ahead at the end of election night on November 3, but then see Biden pull ahead and declared the winner by the end the week. The researchers, who surveyed more than 20,300 Americans between September 4 and 27, find a substantial increase in the number of those who say they plan to vote using mail-in or absentee ballots. They estimate 82 million voters will cast such ballots in the 2020 U.S. presidential election, or more than six times those that did in 2016. They also reveal a deep partisan divide when it comes to preferences for how people plan to vote: 68% of those who favor Trump say they will turn out on Election Day to cast their ballot versus just 23% who favor Biden. But likely voters overall favored Biden by 50% to 40%.

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As Relief Talks Stall, 80% of Americans Back Passage of a Fifth Coronavirus Bill

October 2020

Matthew A. Baum, John Della Volpe, Roy H. Perlis, Mauricio Santillana, Harvard University; Katherine Ognyanova, Rutgers University); David Lazer, Northeastern University; James Druckman (IPR/Political Science), Northwestern University

In the face of stalled talks on a new coronavirus relief package, the Democratic-controlled House of Representatives passed a largely symbolic $2.2 trillion one on October 1. A new national survey finds 80% of Americans support passage of a new relief bill. The survey, conducted between September 4 and 27, asked more than 20,000 Americans for their opinions on the next COVID-19 relief bill. Congress has passed four COVID-19 relief packages totaling $3.4 trillion since the start of the pandemic in the United States, including the latest, the CARES Act, on March 27. The strong support for a fifth bill cuts across party affiliation and race.

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Review of the Evanston Police Department’s Use of Force Policy

September 2020

N3 and IPR, Northwestern University

The Evanston Police Department (EPD) asked the Northwestern Neighborhood and Networks Initiative (N3), led by Soledad McGrath and Andrew Papachristos (IPR/Sociology), to review its use of force policy. N3 developed a brief report and recommendations following a review of the current policy, a review of data on EPD use of force made available through the city’s public data portal, and research on best practices in use of force, training, transparency, and accountability.

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Misinformation About COVID-19 and Vaccine Acceptance

September 2020

Matthew A. Baum, John Della Volpe, Roy H. Perlis, Mauricio Santillana, Harvard University; Katherine Ognyanova, Rutgers University); David Lazer, Northeastern University; James Druckman (IPR/Political Science), Northwestern University

According to the latest results from an ongoing national survey of attitudes about COVID-19, if you get your news from social media, you are more likely to fall for misinformation about coronavirus conspiracies, risk factors, and preventative treatments. Of the 21,000 individuals surveyed around the nation between Aug. 7 and 26, 28% of Snapchat users, 23% of Instagram users, and 25% users of Wikipedia believed inaccurate claims. In contrast, the lowest levels of misperceptions emerged for those who received news about the pandemic from local television news, news websites or apps, and community newspapers (11% in each case).

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Public Trust and Americans’ Willingness to Vaccinate for COVID-19

September 2020

Matthew A. Baum, John Della Volpe, Roy H. Perlis, Mauricio Santillana, Harvard University; Katherine Ognyanova, Rutgers University); David Lazer, Northeastern University; James Druckman (IPR/Political Science), Northwestern University

According to the latest results from an ongoing national survey of attitudes about COVID-19, shows that a desire to vaccinate depends on trust in leaders and institutions. Public trust for 15 government institutions and leaders’ ability to manage the pandemic gradually eroded between late April and August. Four institutions—state government (68%), Congress (42%), the White House (46%), and police (65%)—have seen double-digit declines of between 12 and 13 points in trust since the spring. That said, trust levels for most others like banks and media have stabilized since late July.

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Managing Multiple Pandemics: How Street Outreach Workers Are Addressing Gun Violence and COVID-19

September 2020

Dallas Wright, Rose Werth, Dawna Goens Leggett, Soledad McGrath, and Andrew Papachristos (IPR/Sociology), N3 and IPR, Northwestern University

This report from the Northwestern Neighborhood and Networks Initiative (N3) details how how street outreach workers are currently dealing with three pandemics: gun violence, the coronavirus, and racism and police violence. Data show that the neighborhoods covered by outreach workers affiliated with Communities Partnering 4 Peace (CP4P) were the very same neighborhoods with Chicago’s highest rates of COVID-19.

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Americans’ Approval of Governors’ Ability to Handle COVID-19 Continues to Decline

September 2020

Matthew A. Baum, John Della Volpe, Roy H. Perlis, Mauricio Santillana, Harvard University; Katherine Ognyanova, Rutgers University); David Lazer, Northeastern University; James Druckman (IPR/Political Science), Northwestern University

According to the latest results from an ongoing national survey of attitudes about COVID-19, governors saw their approval slip to 48% on average in August—a 3% drop from last month, even as President Trump’s edged up slightly.  In April, Americans’ approval of governors’ management of COVID-19 stood at an average of 63%. The same survey shows the president’s national approval rating improved slightly from 32% in July to 34% in August—though it stood at 42% in April. 

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New Research Shows That the Typical Homicide Victim is in Their Late 20s

September 2020

Jess Robinson, Ava Cheevers, Soledad McGrath, and Andrew Papachristos (IPR/Sociology), Northwestern University

N3’s latest research shows that in 2019 the average age of a homicide victim in Chicago was 29 years of age and the median age was 27 years old, meaning that a typical homicide victim is in his or her 20s. Over the past decade, the median has fluctuated between 24 and 28 years old, and Chicago has seen a 71% decrease in the number of victims 12 or younger since the 1990s. Still, violence permeates Chicago, especially in communities on the South and West Sides, with Black and Latino residents more likely to die by gun violence at rates far higher than for White ones.

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Americans Not Confident Schools Can Re-Open Safely

August 2020

Matthew A. Baum, John Della Volpe, Roy H. Perlis, Mauricio Santillana, Harvard University; Katherine Ognyanova, Rutgers University); David Lazer, Northeastern University; James Druckman (IPR/Political Science), Northwestern University

According to the latest results from an ongoing national survey of attitudes about COVID-19, most Americans do not believe it is safe for K-12 students to return to in-person classes this fall. Only 31% of respondents believe that returning to school is very safe (10%) or somewhat safe (21%). There are differences across groups of Americans, notably by gender and race. For instance, women are less likely to consider returning to school as very or somewhat safe (28% versus 34% for men), as are non-white respondents (19% versus 37% among white respondents).

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Communities Partnering for Peace (CP4P) Street Outreach: The Moments that Matter

August 2020

Rose Werth, Dallas Wright, Dawna Leggett, Soledad McGrath, and Andrew Papachristos (IPR/Sociology), Northwestern University

As the research partner for CP4P, the Northwestern Neighborhood & Network Initiative (N3) uses quantitative and qualitative methods to study its impact.  While analysis of administrative and survey data illuminates a wide range of behaviors and outcomes, they cannot fully describe the full spectrum of potential participant outcomes. Therefore, CP4P and N3 launched a qualitative study to provide a more holistic account of participants' lives and experiences with street outreach.

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Most Americans Willing to Vaccinate for COVID-19, While Testing Speeds Lag

August 2020

Matthew A. Baum, John Della Volpe, Roy H. Perlis, Mauricio Santillana, Harvard University; Katherine Ognyanova, Rutgers University); David Lazer, Northeastern University; James Druckman (IPR/Political Science), Northwestern University

The latest results from an ongoing survey of Americans’ opinions about the COVID-19 pandemic show that two-thirds (66%) of Americans say they are either “somewhat” or “extremely” likely to vaccinate themselves and their children against the novel coronavirus when such a vaccine becomes available. At the same time, Americans are waiting four days on average to find out the results of COVID-19 nasal swab tests, according to survey results collected between July 10 and 26. This is double the ideal amount of time of 1–2 days for effective contact tracing of COVID-19 cases.

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Visualizing Food Insecurity

July 2020

Diane Whitmore Schanzenbach (IPR/SESP) and Abigail Pitts, Northwestern University

IPR researchers have created a new tool for visualizing food insecurity data across the nation. Users can find data from April 23 onward from the U.S. Census Household Pulse Survey on weekly rates of food insecurity for respondents with and without children, which can also be sorted by race and ethnicity for selected states.

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The Chicago Neighborhood Policing Initiative: Preliminary Findings and Lessons Learned

July 2020

Dawna Leggett, Wayne Rivera-Cuadrado, Karlia Brown, Kat Albrecht, Soledad McGrath, and Andrew Papachristos (IPR/Sociology), Northwestern University

In January 2019, the Chicago Neighborhood Policing Initiative (CNPI) was launched. The Northwestern Neighborhood & Network Initiative (N3) began evaluating CNPI during its initial rollout. Analyses of
the first year of implementation are presented in this report. They include findings on officer and community perceptions of one another, perceptions of public safety, and community satisfaction with police performance; an assessment of CNPI’s impact on community trust; and preliminary recommendations.

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Americans Are Losing Confidence in Government Executives’ Ability to Handle COVID-19

July 2020

Matthew A. Baum, John Della Volpe, Roy H. Perlis, Mauricio Santillana, Harvard University; Katherine Ognyanova, Rutgers University); David Lazer, Northeastern University; James Druckman (IPR/Political Science), Northwestern University

Confidence in executive leadership is declining, with governors seeing a 10-point drop on average in approval from April to June. Just five governors saw increases in approval, in Hawaii, Michigan, New Jersey, South Dakota, and Vermont. Approval for Republican governors is highly polarized: Only four governors overall have approval ratings at 70% or above, and all are Republicans in Democratic-leaning states. Out of the 10 governors with approval ratings below 45%, eight are Republicans in Republican-leaning states.

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How Much Has Food Insecurity Risen? Evidence from the Census Household Pulse Survey

June 2020

Food Insecurity in the Census Household Pulse Survey Data Tables

June 2020

Americans’ Trust in Institutions' Ability to Handle COVID-19 is Fading

June 2020

Matthew A. Baum, John Della Volpe, Roy H. Perlis, Mauricio Santillana, Harvard University; Katherine Ognyanova, Rutgers University); David Lazer, Northeastern University; James Druckman (IPR/Political Science), Northwestern University

In the third wave of an ongoing survey, researchers found that Americans’ trust is fraying in their institutions’ ability to respond — especially with regard to the police, in whom trust had fallen by 8% since April. Overall trust in the police in the second half of May was lowest among African Americans, with just 54% saying they have “some” or “a lot” of trust, compared to 75% of white respondents, 65% of Hispanic respondents, and 73% of Asian American respondents who said the same.

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Worried About Having a Baby During the Pandemic?

May 2020

Estimates of Food Insecurity During the COVID-19 Crisis: Results from the COVID Impact Survey Week 2 (May 4–10, 2020)

May 2020

Most Americans Support Vote by Mail During the COVID-19 Pandemic

May 2020

Matthew A. Baum, John Della Volpe, Roy H. Perlis, Mauricio Santillana, Harvard University; Katherine Ognyanova, Rutgers University); David Lazer, Northeastern University; James Druckman (IPR/Political Science), Northwestern University

In the second wave of an ongoing survey, James Druckman and his fellow researchers found that a majority of Americans (60%) support efforts to make it easier to vote by mail in the upcoming November election, including majorities in 46 states. The researchers also showed that “a considerable proportion of Americans say they would be more likely to vote if mail were an option,” and that majorities of respondents in all but three states—South Carolina, Arkansas, and Mississippi—said they felt confident in their knowledge of how to do so.

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Most Americans Prefer to Wait to Reopen the Country

May 2020

Matthew A. Baum, John Della Volpe, Roy H. Perlis, Mauricio Santillana, Harvard University; Katherine Ognyanova, Rutgers University); David Lazer, Northeastern University; James Druckman (IPR/Political Science), Northwestern University

IPR political scientist James Druckman is one of the researchers involved in conducting a survey and analyzing data on "the state of the nation" amid the COVID-19 pandemic as part of a consortium of four universities—Northwestern, Harvard, Northeastern, and Rutgers. The social scientists are investigating a variety of topics in addition to reopening that cover economic consequences, COVID-19 mitigation strategies, health concerns, trust in institutions and leaders, and voting by mail. In its initial wave, they find a majority of Americans (60%) continue to prefer that the country wait at least four weeks before reopening.

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Estimates of Food Insecurity During the COVID-19 Crisis: Results from the COVID Impact Survey Week 1 (April 20–26, 2020)

April 2020