INSTITUTE FOR POLICY RESEARCH

New IPR Research: September 2025

This month’s new research from our faculty experts examines how racial bias shaped dining patterns in the early days of the COVID pandemic and the barriers Americans face when seeking help for basic needs. It also looks at how advanced computational tools can improve environmental conservation and how universal pre-K programs can boost economic growth.

Race, Poverty, & Inequality

Bias Drove Down Dining in Asian Restaurants Before COVID Shutdowns

How might external events, like a pandemic, influence racial attitudes? In the Journal of Public Economics, IPR economist Jonathan Guryan and his colleagues used restaurant foot traffic data from cellphone pings to examine this question. They compared diners’ visits to 622,103 restaurants around the U.S. each week early in the COVID-19 pandemic from January 5 to April 5, 2020. Using neighborhood and census data, they also identified clusters of ethnic restaurants, counting 75 Asian restaurant enclaves across the U.S. While both Asian and other ethnic restaurants experienced similar drops in customers, Asian restaurants in Chinese enclaves saw a sharper drop—or nearly a 9% decline—in foot traffic. This drop took place over the seven weeks between the first confirmed U.S. COVID case and the first statewide stay-at-home order by California on March 19. In contrast, Italian restaurants located in a Little Italy, for example, did not lose as many customers after reports of Italy’s first COVID-19 case in late February and subsequent U.S. cases due to travel. To better understand anti-Asian sentiment, the researchers examined online searches for “Kung Flu.” They find visits to Chinatown restaurants decreased in those cities with higher searches for the derogatory term. This evidence suggests that the decline in restaurant foot traffic in Asian enclaves was linked to restaurant-goers’ anti-Asian sentiment rather than public health concerns or being worried about contracting COVID from international travelers. 

Americans Face Stigma, Barriers in Seeking Help

Despite over 40% of Americans experiencing material hardship each year—defined as the inability to meet basic needs like food, housing, or healthcare—few seek or receive the help they need. In Health Communication, networks expert and IPR associate Michelle Shumate and colleagues examine how individuals evaluate different channels of help-seeking, and the barriers that prevent individuals from accessing this critical assistance. Through interviews with 27 participants aged 18 to 70, the researchers found that people turn to formal channels—such as government agencies and nonprofits—for more complex needs, like housing and healthcare. These formal channels were considered effective when they provided long-term support, such as SNAP benefits or rental assistance. Informal channels, such as friends and family, were seen as better suited to immediate, daily needs, like transportation or food. Participants also evaluated informal help more generously: while 20 instances of formal help were considered ineffective, only four instances of informal help were viewed that way. This suggests that emotional connection, accessibility, and lower expectations make informal support feel more helpful, even when it doesn’t fully address the material hardship. The study also highlights three key barriers to help-seeking: stigma, social isolation, and systemic issues like underfunding and eligibility requirements. The research points to the need for navigational resources and stigma reduction strategies to better connect Americans with the support systems designed to help them. 

Methods for Policy Research

Computational Tools Can Improve Environmental Conservation 

Protecting nature in the face of climate change and biodiversity loss requires large-scale action—but what works in one place often fails in another. This challenge, known as context dependency, arises because social and ecological conditions vary widely around the world. In an article in Nature, IPR statistician Beth Tipton and her co-authors argue that conservation needs a more targeted approach they call “precision ecology.” Inspired by fields like medicine, which uses personalized treatments, and marketing, which tailors ads to individuals, precision ecology applies big data and advanced computational methods to predict how interventions will work in specific contexts. Rather than relying on broad averages, this approach estimates individual treatment effects—answering questions such as what works, where, and under what conditions? For example, precision ecology could help identify where tree planting will most effectively boost carbon storage or where wetland restoration will help recover local plant and wildlife populations. The authors highlight tools such as machine learning “meta-learners,” which can detect patterns across large datasets, and simulations with “virtual ecologists” to test and refine strategies. While challenges remain—including data quality and defining the right units of analysis—precision ecology offers a promising path toward more effective, evidence-based conservation. 

Education & Human Development

Does Universal Pre-K Boost the Economy?

While some research shows that Universal Pre-Kindergarten (UPK) helps the economy, it’s unclear whether UPK programs increase mothers’ employment and how UPK affects the labor market more broadly. In a working paper, IPR economist Kirabo Jackson and his colleagues examine the impact of UPK programs that started between 1995 and 2020 in nine states and cities: Georgia, Oklahoma, West Virginia, Florida, Iowa, Wisconsin, Vermont, Washington, D.C., and New York City. They focused on areas with programs available to all families regardless of their income, that were serving at least 50% of the area’s four-year-olds as of 2019. Using datasets showing pre-K enrollment trends, labor market information, and state-level policies that might affect outcomes such as welfare benefits, they compared economic outcomes before and after the UPK programs were implemented. They find that after pre-K access expanded and enrollment increased, workforce participation rose by 1.2%, employment by 1.5%, and hours worked by 1.6%, resulting in higher earnings. Mothers of young children were most likely to experience an uptick in employment after these programs launched, but women without young children saw an increase as well. Washington, D.C.—home to a high-quality, well-funded UPK program—had especially high employment and labor participation rates. Each dollar spent on UPK generated between 3 to over 20 dollars in earnings—enough that income tax revenue could cover program costs—showing that these programs are an investment in both families and the economy.

Photo credit: iStock

Published: September 22, 2025.