Charles F. Manski: Recognized for His Pioneering Work in ‘Deep Uncertainty’
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[Manski’s work] has uncovered some of the erroneous assumptions we economists are prey to, which make our predictions and understanding of behavior quite fragile.”
Sir Richard Blundell
David Ricardo Professor of Political Economy, University College London
IPR economist Charles F. Manski has spent a large portion of his career untangling how best to measure scientific uncertainty—in particular what he has called “incredible certitude” or conclusions drawn from data that lack firm empirical support. He has applied that understanding to policy analysis, from education and health to labor markets and social programs. In recognition of this pioneering work, the BBVA Foundation awarded him its Frontiers of Knowledge Award in Economics, Finance, and Management.
Manski was one of nine awardees in the 18th edition across eight scientific and cultural fields, including economics, management, finance, and the humanities.
The jury cited Manski’s work in developing the foundations of modern econometric methods. They said Manski’s methods have “transformed” the conclusions that economists infer from their data, allowing them to better understand the degree of uncertainty their models generate and to better evaluate public policies with incomplete evidence.
One of the committee members, Sir Richard Blundell, noted that Manski’s work “has uncovered some of the erroneous assumptions we economists are prey to, which make our predictions and understanding of behavior quite fragile.” Blundell is the David Ricardo Professor of Political Economy at University College London in the United Kingdom.
Manski has recently extended his research findings to a new field ripe for such analysis: medical decision-making. He is now collaborating with medical researchers and health economists to understand how such uncertainty might affect the decisions they make.
“Doctors do all they can to help their patients,” Manski said, “but it’s difficult for them to deal with uncertainty, and often they have these situations of ambiguity or deep uncertainty where they cannot really put probabilities on competing treatment options.”
Described by the committee as “a critical conscience of measurement in the social sciences,” Manski said he is proud of the designation as he “cares deeply” about the credibility of the assumptions that economists and other specialists bring to bear in their work. In this respect, he describes himself as healthily skeptical.
Learn more about Charles F. Manski and his work.
Photo credit: Patricia Reese
Published: April 29, 2026.
