Motivated Reasoning and Political Polarization in Opinions about Extreme Weather and Climate Change (WP-26-02)
Robin Bayes, James Druckman, and Daniel Molden
A major challenge in developing climate change solutions is political polarization: those on the left tend to acknowledge the consequences of climate change and support solutions whereas those on the right tend to express skepticism. This chapter reviews research showing that polarization emerges from and is sustained by motivated reasoning, where individuals prioritize adopting partisan positions over accessing and relying upon scientifically accurate information. It further evaluates whether experiencing extreme weather events – a reality occurring with increasing frequency – might limit partisan motivated reasoning and increase efforts to form accurate perceptions about climate change (particularly among those on the right). This might occur since ignoring accurate climate information in the face of extreme weather events has more immediate and concrete consequences. Overall, current findings provide little support for this possibility, although some evidence suggests that believing extreme weather events are causing personal harm (independent of actual experiences of these events) predicts more support for climate solutions that specifically involve adapting to extreme weather.