The Impact of Selective Violence on Participation: The Killing of Politicians in Colombia (WP-23-44)
Ana Arjona, Mario Chacón, and Laura García-Montoya
How does armed conflict impact political behavior? Multiple studies have investigated if victims of wartime violence differ from non-victims in whether, and how, they participate politically. Although this research has focused on different forms of violence, no study has investigated the impact of selective violence against politicians or candidates. This is an important omission as in most weakly institutionalized democracies warring sides often use violence against political leaders to influence the electoral process. This form of violence could be one of the most consequential for participation as it affects both the supply- and demand-side of democracy. The researchers use an original dataset of almost 2,000 killings of local politicians in Colombia to estimate the impact of this type of violence on turnout in recent decades. Taking municipalities where killing attempts failed as a comparison group, they find that political killings significantly decrease turnout within each electoral cycle. Their study shows that political killings have important effects on local democracy and calls for more research on selective forms of violence.