Time
Limits and Welfare Reform: New Estimates of the Number
and Characteristics of Affected Families
Greg
J. Duncan, Kathleen Mullan Harris, and Johanne Boisjoly
Abstract
The 1996 welfare reform legislation stipulates a 60-month
time limit on total receipt as well as work requirements after 24
months of receipt. Using Panel Study of Income Dynamics (PSID) data
on the monthly patterns of AFDC receipt during the 1980s and early
1990s, we estimate the number and characteristics of recipient families
likely to be affected by the 60-month time limit, as well as how
quickly families will reach the limits. We present estimates separately
for new recipients and for the existing AFDC caseload. We also estimate
the fraction of recipients likely to be subjected to work requirements
after 24 months of receipt.
.We find that very large numbers of low-income families may be affected
by penalties and benefit cutoffs as a result of reaching time limits.
Unless behavior changes in response to the provisions of the 1996
legislation, around 40% of the current caseloadÑsome two million
families and 3.8 million childrenÑwill hit the 60-month imit on
total receipt. Only a little more than half of the recipients meeting
the limits do so right away. Characteristics most predictive of
reaching the time limit are youth, never-married status, lacking
a high school diploma, and the presence of preschool children at
the time of welfare entry. A "risk index" based on these traits
is highly predictive of reaching time limits and can be used by
states to target cases most likely to reach them
In the case of work requirements, we estimate that a little more
than half of the current caseload will be subject to work requirements
in that they will accumulate 24 months of receipt and will not be
working around the time of the 24th month
Greg J. Duncan, School
of Education and Social Policy, Northwestern University Kathleen Mullan Harris, University
of North Carolina at Chapel Hill Johanne Boisjoly, University of Quebec at Rimouski
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