Welfare states within most developed democracies
appear quite resilient in the face of profound shifts in their
national settings, and with respect to the turbulent global environment
of the past 20 years. This contrasts with once widespread predictions
of retrenchment, and it has refocused debates over trends in social
policymaking on the phenomenon of welfare state persistence. The
resilience of mature welfare states is of further significance
in light of the possibility that the causal forces underlying
persistence differ from those accounting for their initial historical
development. Using recent formulations of power resources and
path dependency approaches, and also the emerging literature on
policy responsiveness, we argue for the importance of considering
mass policy preferences as a mechanism behind welfare state persistence.
Analyzing a new country-level dataset, we find that economic and
demographic factors have exerted significant pressures on contemporary
welfare states, but of far greater importance are the larger effects
of mass policy preferences and constitutional structures. Further
analyses suggest that more extensive changes in policy preferences
have the potential to alter the trajectory of welfare state development,
particularly within European democracies. We discuss implications
of these results for advancing emerging debates over welfare state
persistence.
Clem Brooks, Professor of Sociology,
Indiana University, Bloomington Jeff Manza, Professor of Sociology; Faculty Fellow,
Institute for Policy Research, Northwestern University
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