Research in international relations has identified
a variety of actors who appear to influence U.S. foreign policy,
including experts and “epistemic communities,” organized
interests (especially business and labor), and ordinary citizens
or “public opinion.” This research, however, has often
focused on a single factor at a time, rather than systematically
testing the relative importance of alternative possible influences.
Using three decades of extensive survey data, Jacobs and Page
conduct a comparative test, attempting to account for the expressed
foreign policy preferences of policymakers by means of the preferences
of the general public and those of several distinct sets of elites.
The results of cross-sectional
and time-lagged analyses suggest that U.S. foreign policy is most
heavily and consistently influenced by internationally oriented
business leaders, followed by experts (who, however, might themselves
be influenced by business). Labor appears to have significant
but smaller impacts. The general public seems to have considerably
less effect, except under particular conditions. These results
generally hold over several different analytical models (including
two-observation time series) and different clusters of issues
(economic, military, and diplomatic), with some variations across
different institutional settings (the U.S. House, Senate, and
executive branch).
Lawrence R. Jacobs, Political
Science, University of Minnesota Benjamin I. Page, Political Science and Institute
for Policy Research, Northwestern University
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