Bayes and BOGSAT: Issues in When and How to Revise Earthquake Hazard Maps (IPR-WP-14-14)


IPR-WP-14-14

Seth Stein, Bruce Spencer, Edward Brooks

Earthquake hazard maps play an important role in the formulation of building codes throughout the U.S. and much of the world.  An important question is what to do after a major earthquake yielding shaking larger than anticipated in a hazard map. Common practice is to revise the map to show increased hazard in the heavily-shaken area. However, a new map that better describes the past does not necessarily better predict the future. The researchers examine the logic underlying map revision and argue that Bayesian modeling can play a useful role in deciding whether and how to revise the maps to improve forecasting the future.

Seth Stein, William Deering Professor, Department of Earth & Planetary Sciences Faculty Associate, Institute for Policy Research, Northwestern University

Bruce Spencer, Professor, Department of Statistics Faculty Fellow, Institute for Policy Research, Northwestern University

Edward Brooks, Graduate Student, Department of Earth & Planetary Sciences and Department of Statistics, Northwestern University

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